Before you go flinging yourselves off of buildings tomorrow night ...

I did a little research to see just what the prospects are killing the Senate bill tomorrow night. It appears that Mary Landrieu has been promised $100 Million for Louisiana, and Dick Durbin boasted earlier (and then retracted his boast) that Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas has told Reid how she would vote. Since the vote is going forward, that should tell you something.

Today, I saw that Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman (both of whom are committed to a filibuster of a public option) are voting "yes" to open debate. So, what gives?

Then, I turned to the best political analyst in America. Do I have your attention? He is Jay Cost, of "The Horserace Blog". Following Jay on Election Night 2004, I knew 15 minutes before the networks that Pres. Bush had won. He is fantastic, conservative, level-headed, and a superb statistical analyst.

We could use this perspective these days (some one get word to Beck ... so he doesn't go bungee jumping without a cord on Saturday p.m.).

So, here's the deal: The Senate is almost certainly going to vote to open debate on Saturday night. They will pitch it as health care reform a la the Reid bill is a foregone conclusion. Don't buy it. Seniors are going to hammer whoever pushes this through in 2010 and 2012. Bank it.

Get the lowdown from Jay Cost about what is likely to happen tomorrow night right here.